Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index summarizes U.S. household views of current business and labor conditions and six-month expectations.

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a monthly U.S. survey index published by The Conference Board. It summarizes households’ assessments of current business and employment conditions and their expectations for business conditions, employment, and family income six months ahead. The CCI measures reported attitudes, not actual spending, income, or employment.

This page concerns The Conference Board’s named U.S. index. Other organizations publish consumer-confidence or consumer-sentiment measures with different questions, samples, scales, and formulas.

Key Takeaways

  • The headline CCI averages five question-level indexes, each benchmarked to 1985.
  • The Present Situation Index uses two current-condition questions; the Expectations Index uses three forward-looking questions.
  • 1985=100 is a base-period convention, not a neutral score or the percentage of optimistic households.
  • Index-point changes should be compared with the series’ own history and components.
  • Confidence can inform forecasts, but it does not mechanically predict consumer spending, recessions, interest rates, or asset prices.

What the Survey Asks

The five headline questions cover:

  1. current business conditions;
  2. business conditions six months ahead;
  3. current employment conditions;
  4. employment conditions six months ahead; and
  5. total family income six months ahead.

Respondents can give positive, negative, or neutral answers. The Conference Board’s broader monthly report also covers topics such as buying plans and expectations for inflation, interest rates, and stock prices, but those additional responses are not all components of the headline CCI.

The survey is currently conducted online for The Conference Board by Toluna. Sampling and survey mode matter because a sentiment index depends on who is asked, when they respond, and how the sample is weighted.

How the CCI Is Calculated

For each headline question, the positive share is divided by the sum of positive and negative shares. Neutral responses are excluded from this relative-value denominator:

$$ \text{Relative value}_j = \frac{\text{Positive responses}_j} {\text{Positive responses}_j+\text{Negative responses}_j} \times100 $$

Each question’s relative value is seasonally adjusted and compared with its average relative value in 1985:

$$ I_j = \frac{\text{Current relative value}_j} {\text{1985 average relative value}_j} \times100 $$

The headline CCI is the simple average of the five question indexes:

$$ \text{CCI}=\frac{I_1+I_2+I_3+I_4+I_5}{5} $$

The Present Situation Index averages the first and third question indexes. The Expectations Index averages the second, fourth, and fifth. Because those subindexes contain two and three questions respectively, the headline CCI is not calculated by simply averaging the two published subindex levels.

Worked Example

Assume the five question-level indexes after adjustment and rebasing are:

Question-level indexIllustrative value
Current business conditions110
Business conditions in six months95
Current employment conditions105
Employment conditions in six months90
Family income in six months100

The headline index would be:

$$ \text{CCI}=\frac{110+95+105+90+100}{5}=100 $$

The Present Situation Index would be 107.5, while the Expectations Index would be 95. A headline value of 100 can therefore conceal an important split: households may view current conditions as better than the base-period comparison while feeling less confident about the next six months.

These values are invented to demonstrate the construction. They are not a historical release.

How to Read a Release

Level

Compare the level with the index’s own history and base convention. Do not compare a Conference Board level directly with a University of Michigan or OECD confidence level.

Monthly Change

If CCI falls from 104 to 98, that is a decline of 6 index points, or about 5.8% relative to the previous level. It is not a decline of 6 percentage points in the share of confident consumers.

Components

Determine whether the move came from present conditions, expectations, or both. Expectations can weaken before households report a comparable deterioration in current conditions.

Survey Period and Revisions

The release describes responses collected during a defined survey window. Later events may not be reflected, and prior readings can be revised.

Why the CCI Matters

Businesses

Consumer-facing businesses compare confidence with sales, orders, pricing, inventories, and customer traffic. A decline may support a cautious demand scenario, but disposable income, credit access, and inflation can offset or reinforce sentiment.

Analysts and Investors

Analysts may use CCI components as timely context for household demand, labor perceptions, and earnings assumptions. The release can move markets when it differs from expectations, but the direction and duration of any reaction are uncertain.

Policymakers

Confidence provides survey evidence about household perceptions. It complements rather than replaces measured employment, prices, income, and consumer spending.

CCI vs. Other Household Measures

MeasurePublisher or sourceWhat it measuresKey distinction
Consumer Confidence IndexThe Conference BoardCurrent conditions and six-month expectationsFive-question U.S. index, 1985=100
Index of Consumer SentimentUniversity of MichiganHousehold finances and economic expectationsSeparate survey and formula; levels are not comparable with CCI
OECD Consumer Confidence IndicatorOECD standardized national survey dataExpected household consumption and saving conditionsNormalized around a long-term average of 100
Retail salesGovernment statistical dataSales receipts at retailersTransaction estimate, not reported sentiment
Personal consumption expendituresNational accountsHousehold consumption spendingBroad expenditure measure, reported with a lag and subject to revision

Risks and Limitations

  • Survey error: Sampling, weighting, nonresponse, and collection mode can affect estimates.
  • News sensitivity: Political events, fuel prices, market moves, and headlines can change sentiment quickly.
  • Behavior gap: Households can report pessimism while maintaining purchases, or report optimism while cutting spending.
  • Aggregation: The headline can hide differences by income, age, region, and current versus expected conditions.
  • Base-period confusion: An index level is not a percentage of respondents.
  • False precision: One month’s change does not establish a durable economic trend.
  • Market inference: A stronger release does not guarantee higher stock prices, higher interest rates, or stronger future GDP.

How to Evaluate the Signal

  1. Compare the headline with the Present Situation and Expectations indexes.
  2. Review several months rather than one observation.
  3. Note the survey dates and any revisions.
  4. Compare sentiment with jobs, income, inflation-adjusted spending, retail sales, and saving.
  5. Check whether the change is broad across demographic groups or concentrated.
  6. Separate what the release says from what markets had already expected.

Sources

FAQs

Does CCI above 100 mean most consumers are optimistic?

No. The index compares current question-level relative values with their 1985 averages. A level of 100 is a base-period reference, not a 50% neutral threshold or a respondent share.

Is CCI the average of the Present Situation and Expectations indexes?

No. The headline CCI averages five question indexes. Present Situation contains two of those questions and Expectations contains three, so a simple average of the two subindex levels would apply the wrong weights.

Can falling consumer confidence predict a recession?

A persistent decline can support evidence of weaker expectations, but CCI alone cannot establish or time a recession. Employment, income, production, credit, and inflation-adjusted spending provide necessary additional evidence.

This page is educational and does not provide personalized investment, business, or economic-policy advice.

Browse Investing