The Baltic Capesize Index measures freight-market conditions for large dry-bulk vessels across specified voyage and time-charter routes.
The Capesize Index, formally the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), is a freight benchmark for large dry-bulk vessels on specified international routes. The Baltic Exchange derives it from daily assessments submitted by independent shipbrokers. Analysts use the BCI and its Capesize 5TC time-charter average to interpret shipping rates, vessel earnings, and transportation conditions for cargoes such as iron ore and coal.
The BCI is related to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), but the two are not identical. The Capesize 5TC average is currently the largest BDI component, with a 40% weight.
Capesize vessels are large dry-bulk carriers used primarily on long-haul routes. The name historically referred to ships too large for some canals and therefore required to sail around major capes. Canal dimensions and vessel designs change, however, so the label should not be treated as a permanent navigation rule.
For benchmark purposes, the vessel is defined by the current Baltic specification rather than a loose size range. The present Capesize time-charter benchmark uses a non-scrubber-fitted 182,000 DWT vessel with additional technical assumptions. An actual ship can earn more or less because its capacity, fuel efficiency, age, location, and equipment differ from the benchmark vessel.
The Capesize 5TC combines five assessed time-charter routes:
| Route | Current 5TC weight | Broad exposure |
|---|---|---|
| C8_182 | 15.0% | Transatlantic round voyage |
| C9_182 | 12.5% | Continent or Mediterranean to Asia |
| C10_182 | 35.0% | Transpacific round voyage |
| C14_182 | 25.0% | China-Brazil round voyage |
| C16_182 | 12.5% | Revised backhaul route |
Each route input is expressed as an assessed daily time-charter equivalent. The route weights reflect the published methodology and can be revised. The Baltic Exchange converts a rounded sum of the weighted route inputs into BCI index points using its published multiplier:
This conversion is why a BCI level should not be described as dollars per day.
Assume the five route assessments are:
| Route | Illustrative rate per day | Weighted contribution |
|---|---|---|
| C8_182 | $25,000 | $3,750 |
| C9_182 | $30,000 | $3,750 |
| C10_182 | $20,000 | $7,000 |
| C14_182 | $35,000 | $8,750 |
| C16_182 | $15,000 | $1,875 |
The illustrative 5TC is therefore:
Applying the published multiplier would produce approximately 2,770 BCI points. These invented route rates demonstrate the mechanics only; they are not a market forecast or a historical observation.
Iron ore and coal movements are important because these are major Capesize cargoes. Demand can change with steel production, electricity generation, mine output, inventory policy, and trade restrictions.
Freight rates can rise when suitable vessels are scarce in a loading region, even if global fleet capacity appears ample. New vessel deliveries, scrapping, maintenance, slow steaming, and ballast positioning all affect available supply.
A rerouted voyage can increase ton-miles and keep a vessel occupied longer. Port congestion, weather, draft restrictions, and waterway disruptions can also reduce effective capacity.
Fuel prices, speed, scrubber status, and consumption affect voyage economics. The benchmark uses a standardized vessel, so it will not match every owner’s cost structure.
| Observation | Possible explanation | What to verify |
|---|---|---|
| BCI rises while iron ore prices are flat | Vessel scarcity, congestion, longer routes, or stronger shipment activity | Route-level assessments, fixtures, port data, and fleet positioning |
| BCI falls despite growing cargo volume | Fleet supply may have increased faster than demand | Deliveries, idle capacity, voyage duration, and route balance |
| One voyage route spikes | Local disruption or concentrated cargo demand | Whether the move appears across the 5TC basket |
| Shipping company revenue diverges from BCI | Contract mix or fleet characteristics differ from the benchmark | Spot exposure, charter duration, vessel type, and operating costs |
The BCI can contribute to macroeconomic analysis, but it is not a clean leading indicator on its own. Its price reflects both demand for transportation and supply of ships.
| Feature | Baltic Capesize Index | Baltic Dry Index |
|---|---|---|
| Coverage | Capesize routes only | Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax composites |
| Sensitivity | Concentrated in large-vessel and major bulk-cargo conditions | Broader dry-bulk vessel exposure |
| Unit | Published index points; 5TC also reported in dollars per day | Composite index level |
| Typical question | What are large-vessel freight conditions? | What are broad dry-bulk freight conditions? |
This page is educational and does not provide investment, commodity-trading, or freight-contract advice. Use the current Baltic methodology and contract terms for financial decisions.